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Outlook 2026: US onshore holds steady at sluggish rate as shale stagnates
As contradictory as it might seem, US oil output has continued to grow over the last several years, even as drilling in the shale plays has maintained a slow decline. This improbable dichotomy is a testimony to the industry’s technological prowess
The looming risks of a US-Venezuela war
The Caribbean country’s role in the global oil market is significantly diminished, but disruptions caused by outright conflict would still have implications for US Gulf Coast refineries
Letter from Saudi Arabia: US-Saudi energy ties enter a new phase
Aramco’s pursuit of $30b in US gas partnerships marks a strategic pivot. The US gains capital and certainty; Saudi Arabia gains access, flexibility and a new export future
Letter from London: Oil’s golden triangle
The interplay between OPEC+, China and the US will define oil markets throughout 2026
The duality of US shale
A sector beset by pessimism and pain amid price weakness contrasts with data signalling production strength and resilience
Explainer: How the EU will wean itself off Russian gas
Questions remain about how the phase-out will be implemented and enforced in practice
Mideast states power up their gas priorities
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are ploughing resources into gas—with a growing eye on facilitating domestic use in power and value-added sectors
Arctic LNG comes in from the cold
Beijing now appears prepared to accept discounted Russian LNG, even at the cost of heightened sanctions risk
MENA's gas metamorphosis
Across the Middle East and North Africa, gas is taking an enhanced role in helping build out economies that need to diversify away from crude oil dependence
From green goals to ground realities
As the EU remains deadlocked over its 2040 emissions goal, the IEA has tempered its climate rhetoric, forecasting that oil and gas will continue growing over the coming decades
LNG US EU
Joseph Murphy
26 August 2025
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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GECF pours cold water on US-EU energy trade deal

The framework deal is more about symbolic transatlantic solidarity more than increasing actual trade volumes, according to the GECF

There is limited scope for increasing the EU’s LNG imports from the US to a level that would help fulfil Washington and Brussels’ $750b energy trade deal announced in late July, the Gas Exporting Countries’ Forum (GECF) announced in its latest monthly gas market report. The Trump administration has used tariffs on imported goods from across the world this year as leverage to make US trading partners reduce their trade deficit with the country. With the EU accounting for close to a fifth of US imports, it has taken centre stage in these discussions. On 27 July, US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a framework trade deal that would see Wash

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Outlook 2026: US onshore holds steady at sluggish rate as shale stagnates
Outlook 2026
15 December 2025
As contradictory as it might seem, US oil output has continued to grow over the last several years, even as drilling in the shale plays has maintained a slow decline. This improbable dichotomy is a testimony to the industry’s technological prowess

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