How much Iranian oil will be lost if Trump scraps the JCPOA?
The range of estimates is wide and the White House isn’t giving much thought to what happens next
President Donald Trump will probably ditch the Iran nuclear deal on 12 May—on that, most everyone seems to agree. But consensus over the impact on oil supply is lacking. More than 1m barrels a day of supply could be lost over the next 18 months. Worse still, the White House might not really have a plan. At stake are US sanctions waivers that have kept a renewed embargo at bay. Trump extended these waivers in January but said he wouldn't renew them again in May unless the European Union and Congress fix parts of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that he doesn't like. The UK, France and Germany, the so-called E3, want to keep the deal running, and so have been trying to find some
Also in this section
17 May 2024
The latest drought crisis is passing, but longer-term solutions are in motion, explains Panama Canal Authority Administrator Ricaurte Vasquez Morales
16 May 2024
Flat oil growth in 2024 highlights mounting industry problems
15 May 2024
Five years ago, Uzbekistan turned to a private company called Saneg to reverse the fortunes of its oil industry. Results so far are encouraging, and according to CEO Tulkin Yusupov, further progress is on the way
13 May 2024
But optimism about island nation checked by competition around African upstream investment and history of false dawns