Not so fast for EVs

EVs will get a bigger share of the car market, but won't pose much of a threat to global gasoline demand

The use of electric vehicles (EVs) will not surge because batteries become cheaper. Widespread adoption will not be at a similar pace to that of mobile phones. And every country in the world will not imitate Norway's policy. Those are three oft-made claims by EV boosters—but if you sell oil, rest easy. The threat of electric cars is overstated. A key conclusion of FGE's annual Global Long-Term Oil Market Outlook to 2040 is that while EVs will take a bigger share of the market, the growth will slow down, and their emergence won't disrupt oil-demand growth over the coming decades. In 2040, we still expect 60% of the global light-duty fleet—which by then will number 1.8bn vehicles—to be fuelled