China’s gas goals face unconventional hurdles

Beijing’s strong emphasis on domestic production growth will require heavier investment from the country’s NOCs, as remaining reserves become harder to exploit

China’s domestic gas output will continue to grow for the rest of this decade, as the country’s energy giants eke out greater production at prolific legacy fields. But later gains could become harder to come by, as upstream development will eventually have to shift to complex frontier plays, both onshore and offshore, that are more challenging to exploit. China has managed to increase gas output by more than 10bcm/yr for the past six years, a streak the central government is keen to continue. PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC—which together accounted for 83% of gas produced in China in the first nine months of this year—have persistently sustained or increased domestic investment, under governme