Europe faces perilous year without Ukraine gas transit

The end of transit, though widely anticipated, leaves Europe paying a third more for gas than a year ago and greatly exposed to supply shocks

Europe’s gas market faces a difficult year, with the loss of Russian gas transit through Ukraine leaving it greatly exposed to any future potential supply disruptions, including via the last remaining route for Russian deliveries to Europe: TurkStream. Gas prices are at their highest level in a year and are not expected to see much decline in 2025. This translates into higher energy costs for the European economy, undermining efforts to bolster stagnating GDP and curb the trend of de-industrialisation seen over the past few years. The expected outcome That Russia and Ukraine would not renew their transit deal beyond 2024 was widely anticipated by the market, as evidenced by the steady climb