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Outlook 2026: LNG markets and the overhang
A third wave of LNG supply is coming, and with it a likely oversupply of the fuel by 2028
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Gas Markets
Joseph Murphy
27 June 2025
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Gas pricing finds a new norm

Gas-on-gas competition pricing has grown its share of consumption significantly over the past two decades, primarily at the expense of oil-price-escalation pricing, according to the IGU

Gas-on-gas (GOG) competition, where gas prices are determined by the interplay between direct gas supply and demand, accounted for close to half of total gas consumption in 2024, roughly in line with the level seen a year earlier, according to the International Gas Union’s latest Wholesale Gas Price Survey. Between 2005 and 2024, the share of GOG rose from 31.5% to 49.1%, mainly at the expense of oil-price-escalation (OPE) pricing, where the price is linked through a base price and escalation clause to oil or other fuels, the survey noted. The share of OPE shrank from 24% to 18.5% over the same period. Increased GOG pricing in LNG has been a key driver of this trend in recent years, thanks t

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