Iran’s oil hopes may hinge on Vienna outcome

The fate of Iran and the sanctions against its oil sector is a wildcard facing Opec as it tries to balance the market. Meetings in the Austrian capital this month should make the picture clearer

The fate of an oil industry over a century old can turn on the events of a few weeks. When negotiators from the P5+1 group (the UN Security Council plus Germany) reached a temporary accord with Iran on 24 July, the Brent oil price was $108 a barrel. The implications of the fall of Mosul to Islamic State (IS) on the night of 9 June were still being digested.Events have developed in ways both favourable and unfavourable to Iran. Oil prices have fallen sharply, with Brent now below $90/b. US production continues to surge, demand is tepid, and Iraqi and Libyan exports picked up in September. Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh has decided not to call for an emergency Opec meeting before the next