Political problems threaten Iraq's oil industry

Renewed war in northern Iraq leaves Baghdad desperate to expand exports in the south. It may also lead to a deal with the Kurdish Regional Government – but rejoining Opec’s quota system is not on the cards, writes Gerald Butt

Under different circumstances, Iraq today would have been celebrating an all-time record for oil exports of 2.8 million barrels a day (b/d). Federal exports from southern Iraq in September topped 2.5m b/d, and were it not for the seizure of large areas of territory by Islamic State (IS), exports from federal fields in the north would have averaged around 300,000 b/d. But the circumstances in Iraq are anything but normal. Since early March, pipeline sabotage has prevented oil being pumped from northern federal fields through the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) to the Ceyhan export terminal in Turkey. At the same time, Baghdad continues to challenge the legality of oil production and exports from f