A renminbi threat to oil?
A major Chinese currency devaluation probably wouldn’t hurt Chinese oil demand as much as some think
Oil demand and stockpiling in China will remain strong this year as speculation, particularly in the West, that Beijing will do a massive 15-20% devaluation of its currency, appears to be just that. Chinese oil consumption and imports are sensitive to price changes – so a renminbi devaluation that made crude more expensive in the local currency would hurt both. But domestic oil demand, in particular, also reacts to GDP. A weaker renminbi would be expected to make exports of Chinese goods more competitive, boosting manufacturing activity. In turn, this would lift demand for diesel (used in manufacturing) and offset any weakness in gasoline. Financial markets have for months been humming with
Also in this section
11 July 2025
Equinor and its partners at Norway’s largest oilfield have pulled the trigger on a fresh $1.3b investment that will maintain high output for longer
11 July 2025
Reassessment of the country’s export-facing gas policy coincides with worsening domestic market backdrop
10 July 2025
Without sanctions relief, there is little reason to believe the latest potential attempt at exports from the Russian liquefaction project will be more successful than the one last summer
9 July 2025
Efforts to restructure and boost investment appear to be working, but doubts remain about the plan to almost double crude production by 2030
