How an Opec deal could work
Iran’s demands can be accommodated with some adjustments of the numbers
Getting Opec’s fractious members to agree on cuts has always been difficult: herding cats is easier. But the geopolitical rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, enemies in proxy conflicts from Yemen to Syria, makes the negotiations underway now even harder. Iran is under less pressure than Saudi Arabia. The kingdom’s economy is suffering, while its rival enjoys a post-sanctions recovery. One equation sums up their different stances in negotiations about whether to cut output to support prices. Say Saudi Arabia slashes 0.5m barrels a day from its output – the idea it has floated – to 10.1m b/d, and gains a $5-a-barrel lift in the oil price, from $46 to $51/b. Its daily income rises by about $
Also in this section
9 April 2026
The April 2026 issue of Petroleum Economist is out now!
9 April 2026
Offshore operators are working through an FID backlog as the rig market consolidates, helped by improving project economics and a renewed security drive
2 April 2026
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
2 April 2026
The government is taking important steps to revive domestic production, lift investment and benefit from the geopolitical crisis even if more needs to be done in the longer term
