Slower than thought
Politics, uncertainties over contract terms and physical constraints will cap the speed of Iranian oil’s revival
Iran's post-sanctions return to the global oil and gas market is not going as smoothly as optimists hoped it would. A London conference at which the terms for upstream investment contracts were to have been unveiled has been postponed. The politics look increasingly difficult, including parliamentary elections on 26 February that seem likely to extend conservative dominance. Investor qualms are deepening. The government expects to increase output by 0.5m barrels a day in 2016 and at a minimum regain pre-sanctions capacity of around 3.8m b/d. Production in January rose by 80,000 b/d to 2.9m b/d, and has probably inched higher in February too. But these goals may be missed. The target-setting
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Gas is a central pillar of Colombia’s energy system, but declining production poses a significant challenge, and LNG will be increasingly needed as a stopgap. A recent major offshore gas discovery offers hope, but policy improvements are also required, Camilo Morales, secretary general of Naturgas, the Colombian gas association, tells Petroleum Economist
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The continent’s inventories were already depleted before conflict erupted in the Middle East, causing prices to spike ahead of the crucial summer refilling season
4 March 2026
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
4 March 2026
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
