Letter from the Middle East: The UAE and Opec—a problem postponed, not solved

Abu Dhabi may have fallen into line for now, but tensions could re-emerge next month

The solution reached by Opec+ in early December may have calmed oil markets’ fears over lack of unity in the alliance’s appetite for retaining production curbs until the end of the year. But month-by-month revisiting of output limits opens the prospect for tensions to emerge with each negotiation. And the potentially growing impatience of the UAE to remake its quota, to allow it to produce more, could thus emerge not as an issue bubbling in the background, but as an open and prolonged battle.    The UAE, represented effectively by Abu Dhabi, has traditionally been a strong supporter of Opec, despite not having been a founder member. It usually closely coordinates its policy with Mid-East Gul