BP and Shell prepare for the worst

The UK-headquartered majors are pursuing strategies that assume the future plays out least favourably for hydrocarbons

BP and Shell have presented their new corporate strategies for a lower-carbon world as crafted to be robust and resilient under each of three global energy scenarios they both lay out. But their worst-case scenarios for oil and gas—and hence, best-case scenarios for the planet—appear to be the new strategies’ key drivers, as if the firms’ existential fears should they not radically adapt their traditional business model trumps the potential greater profit should progress be slower. Shell’s Sky 1.5 and BP’s Net Zero were both modelled to meet the Paris Agreement’s more stringent 1.5°C goal. Despite this, these energy worlds of the future are surprisingly different for each scenario —in terms

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