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The shadow fleet is the real chokepoint in 2026
The assumption that oil markets will re-route and work around sanctions is being tested, and it is the physical infrastructure that is acting as the constraint
China’s new oil position
OPEC, upstream investors and refiners all face strategic shifts now the Asian behemoth is no longer the main engine of global oil demand growth
The AI industry’s coming dominance of oil and gas
Tech giants rather than oil majors could soon upend hydrocarbon markets, starting with North America
EU sanctions push stalls ahead of fourth anniversary of Russian invasion
As Europe marks the fourth anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, EU efforts to tighten sanctions on Moscow have stalled
Canadian producers positioned to ride out the downcycle
The country’s upstream players have demonstrated resilience to low oil prices and are well positioned to prosper despite a volatile market
Letter from Iran: Testing times for Tehran-Beijing crude dynamics
Growing pressure from the Trump administration continues to threaten a resilient China-Iran oil nexus
OPEC+’s cohesive restraint
The alliance is keeping output on track and the market in balance amid geopolitical tensions and a fragile supply-demand ledger
OPEC+ set to strengthen its hand
The alliance looks to bolster market management credibility by bringing greater clarity and unity to output cuts and producer capacity later in 2026
Oil in 2026: Five factors to watch
Petroleum Economist takes a look at the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the market for this year
Venezuela upends global heavy crude market
The ripple effects of US refiners switching to Venezuela grades will be felt from Canada to China and everywhere in between
Markets Politics
Neil Atkinson
4 April 2024
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The Fed sends flowers to OPEC

OPEC+ continues to keep oil prices within a 'goldilocks' price range and provide stability in turbulent geopolitical times

The US Federal Reserve published in January an academic paper, Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market. The paper is the result of rigorous research and analysis by a team of authors who used a model-based approach to analyse all recorded OPEC press releases and mapped them against the fundamentals of oil supply, demand and speculative activity in the oil market. Their main conclusion was that “OPEC communication reduces oil price volatility and prompts market participants to rebalance their positions”. For an organisation that often gets a bad press, this complimentary statement might come as a surprise to many, particularly those who mistakenly take the view that OPEC is a

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