The global energy debate has moved beyond the old binary of oil versus renewables. Today, the real competition is about securing three fundamentals: energy, materials and computation. Nations are striving to ensure firm power supplies, access to the minerals that underpin electrification and electronics, and the digital infrastructure that drives modern productivity.
Across MENA, a new triad has emerged of gas, critical minerals and datacentres. Leading economies are using hydrocarbon revenues to finance mineral strategies and power hyperscale computing, which is positioning the region as an integrator of the global energy system rather than a simple exporter of molecules.
Qatar and the UAE illustrate how gas has been repositioned as an engine of growth and influence. Qatar’s North Field expansion, set to begin LNG production in the second half of 2026, will lift capacity from 77mt/yr to 126mt/yr, an 85% increase. This expansion secures supply for Asian and European markets well into the 2030s, while strengthening the Qatar Investment Authority’s balance sheet and enabling broader investments linked to the energy transition.
In the UAE, ADNOC’s Ruwais LNG project exemplifies the next generation of gas infrastructure. Designed as a lower-carbon, electrically powered liquefaction facility with two 4.8mt/yr trains, it has already locked in long-term offtake agreements, including a 15-year deal with Japan’s Osaka Gas. Its importance extends beyond export revenue, as gas will provide the reliable baseload power to support manufacturing, desalination and the region’s expanding data infrastructure.
Oman is following a similar trajectory. In 2024, Oman LNG lifted output to around 12mt, a record year, from 11.5mt in 2023, while improving efficiency to reduce emission intensity. The balance between production growth and sustainability keeps Oman embedded in both Asian and European portfolios and provides a stable energy base for its domestic industrial expansion.
Further west, North Africa’s pipeline gas is gaining renewed prominence as Europe searches for secure supplies as it phases out Russian imports. Algeria has emerged as Italy’s top pipeline provider through the TransMed line, strengthened by a series of Eni–Sonatrach agreements since 2022. Around $50b in planned investment aims to raise output and improve reliability. Progress has been uneven but clearly signals Algeria’s intent to remain central to European energy security.
If gas forms the foundation, then critical minerals provide MENA’s forward-looking hedge. Saudi Arabia stands out here. Ma’aden and the Public Investment Fund created Manara Minerals to acquire global stakes in transition metals. In 2024, the company purchased a 10% share in Vale Base Metals for $2.5b, giving the Kingdom exposure to nickel and copper supply chains while supporting domestic processing and downstream industries.
Saudi Arabia’s move reflects a wider trend. With Gulf sovereign wealth funds now managing more than $4t in assets, their host governments are deploying capital strategically to shape value chains and alliances rather than simply generate financial returns.
North Africa is also moving up the critical minerals ladder. Morocco is diversifying beyond phosphates into battery materials manufacturing. A new Sino-Moroccan joint venture began producing nickel-manganese-cobalt precursors in 2025 with a planned capacity of 120,000t/yr, and additional LFP output is in development. Combined with its growing automotive sector, this positions Morocco as a processing and export hub for Europe’s rapidly evolving battery supply chain.
The third pillar, datacentres, ties energy and materials strategies to the digital economy. Installed datacentre power capacity in the Middle East is projected to triple from about 1GW in 2025 to more than 3.3GW within five years, driven by cloud computing, AI and data-localisation policies. In the UAE, capacity is expected to rise by 165%, to nearly 950MW by 2028, led by Khazna and a wave of new AI-focused campuses. Microsoft and Oracle are also expanding through multibillion-dollar cloud and AI infrastructure programmes across the Gulf.
Strategic corridors
The digital boom fits within a broader regional strategy centred on new economic corridors, including the India–Middle-East–Europe Corridor, China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the Iraq–Turkey Development Road. These routes link energy flows with logistics, ports, manufacturing and data connectivity. From Jebel Ali in the UAE to Duqm in Oman, upgraded ports and multimodal transport links are transforming MENA into a hub for both physical and digital trade. Integration, not extraction, now defines the region’s emerging geoeconomic model.
Nevertheless, the rapid digital buildout brings new resource and infrastructure challenges. The average global datacentre power usage effectiveness remains around 1.56 power usage effectiveness (PUE)1, while water consumption has become increasingly controversial. Large AI-era facilities can consume hundreds of thousands to millions of litres per day, depending on their cooling systems and location. In MENA’s arid environment, these pressures demand innovation. Operators are experimenting with seawater, air and district-cooling systems, all of which require higher upfront costs and more complex grid coordination.
Other vulnerabilities also loom, from methane intensity in gas production to grid congestion that can undermine the environmental credibility of transition fuels. Addressing these issues will require stronger standards, improved methane measurement and abatement, water-neutral cooling mandates for datacentres and transparent mineral procurement practices. The energy transition will ultimately test not only fiscal strength but also regulatory agility.
If executed effectively, MENA’s energy/minerals/data triad could grant the region long-term leverage as other economies struggle with intermittent power, unstable grids and mineral shortages. Diversifying across molecules, metals and megawatts would build resilience against commodity cycles.
The next phase of MENA’s energy evolution is not a transition away from hydrocarbons. It is a transformation that uses them to finance and enable new sources of value in minerals and computation.
Ultimately, success will depend on integration. LNG must stabilise power for AI campuses, minerals ventures must anchor industrial clusters, and data investments must align with environmental stewardship. The energy economy of the future will depend as much on electrons and algorithms as on oil and gas. MENA’s ability to connect these elements, from wells to wafers, will define its competitive position in the global energy landscape of the 2030s.
Neil Quilliam is partner at Azure Strategy. Travis Smithard is CEO of Rhino Resources. To read Outlook 2026 in full, click here.
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