Talk of conflict in Hormuz is a red herring for oil market
Talk of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz misses the real threat to the global oil market
Iran's threat to close the narrow body of water that connects the Mideast Gulf with the global oil market is neither credible, nor the worst possible outcome of rising tensions between the country and its Western enemies. The Strait of Hormuz is certainly a critical “artery of global trade”, as UK defence minister Philip Hammond said in London today. About a fifth of the world’s oil flows from exporters in the Middle East through the Strait. Shutting it down would trigger an immediate oil-price spike. Depending on the duration of the shut-in, $150 a barrel oil would be just the starting point. (Brent crude futures have risen by 4.6% since the start of the year, to $112/b.) That’s why any att
Also in this section
2 April 2026
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
2 April 2026
The government is taking important steps to revive domestic production, lift investment and benefit from the geopolitical crisis even if more needs to be done in the longer term
1 April 2026
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
1 April 2026
It is not a case of if or when, but the length and magnitude of economic damage from elevated oil prices
