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Waiting for Arctic LNG 2
Without sanctions relief, there is little reason to believe the latest potential attempt at exports from the Russian liquefaction project will be more successful than the one last summer
US, Russia and China circle the Arctic
The strategic importance of vast untapped oil and gas reserves and key shipping routes has come in from the cold
Saudi Arabia and Russia pull OPEC+ in different directions
The two oil heavyweights’ diverging fiscal considerations are straining unity within the group
Is a Russia-Iran gas deal on the horizon?
Russia has ample spare gas, and Iran needs it, but sanctions and pricing pose steep hurdles.
Europe’s hard choices on gas security
EU half measures over storage regulation, geopolitical risks to ending Russian gas, power outage questions and China’s LNG resale leverage make for a challenging path ahead.
India’s Russian crude buying has reached its limit
Middle East grades remain a diminished but important part of the South Asian country’s diet, especially as new refining capacity comes online
US goes after Russian gas money, part 2
While Donald Trump’s future sanctions policy is anything but certain, he may use a ‘carrot and stick’ approach to pursue an end to the war in Ukraine, although any changes will not happen overnight
US goes after Russian gas money, part 1
The latest sanctions on Gazprombank and other Russian banks may cause disruption, but willing buyers of Russian energy will find ways to continue payments
Russia reaches for nationalisation
There is a growing impulse to nationalise Russia’s energy sector out of its difficulties, but any steps in this direction would not be taken overnight
Russian LNG scrambling to emulate oil’s success
A sanctions-defying ‘shadow fleet’ is being assembled, but it remains unclear where Russia will sell the liquefied gas while Arctic LNG 2 remains strangled by sanctions
Russia Gazprom Neft Lukoil Rosneft
Daniel Crawford
Moscow
29 September 2020
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Russia pushes harder for refining rationalisation

Tax changes might force smaller, simpler facilities to the wall

One of the central aims of Russian oil policy over the past decade has been to bring the country’s refining industry up to modern standards. And, as the country’s refiners grapple with weak prices and reduced tax benefits, authorities have closed a loophole that allows certain plants to export low-value heavy fuel oil (HFO) without paying duties—a move that will hurt simpler plants. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of HFO, the ‘dregs’ of the refining process produced through the most basic techniques. This is an inheritance from its Soviet past, when HFO was used intensively in power generation and heavy industry. Demand for the product—both in Russia and overseas—has been under downwa

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