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Letter on Europe: More gas winters of discontent?
Warnings in 2022 of a potential three-winter European gas price crisis remain pertinent amid push-pull from the US and Russia
US LNG embedded in Europe's energy security quest
Geopolitical developments and market shifts mean US LNG will be a vital component in Europe's energy strategy and decarbonisation efforts
Europe has coping mechanisms for life after Russian gas
The Ukraine–Russia gas transit and interconnection agreements are due to expire at the end of this year, but despite some uncertainty, Europe seems well-prepared
Europe’s appetite for LNG to ease
Ample stocks and a soft demand outlook will limit how much LNG Europe can import this year
Letter from Europe: Tobacco offers warning for oil
Moving on from burning fossil fuels for energy will not be easy, but it is ultimately a habit the world will need to kick
Outlook 2024: Germany rethinks its energy strategy amid European energy crisis
The consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been particularly significant for Germany
Energy majors’ strategies show signs of convergence
While US megadeals may not be repeated on the other side of the Atlantic, there is now greater common ground between European and US energy companies
European gas prices still on alert
The market is better prepared but still jittery, while the industry remains wary of the EU price cap
Europe’s gas security strategy may not be 2024 ready
The region’s rapidly evolving infrastructure has a lot to be commended for, but some of the capacity may not be ready in time for the 2024 heating season
Outages could drive renewed European gas price volatility
Europe is better prepared than last winter, but risks remain
Refinery margins are expected to recover this summer
Europe IMF OMV TotalEnergies
Rebeka Foley
25 May 2021
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Summer sun set to shine on European refining

The warmer months ahead promise margins upside

A surge in summer driving and flying will be welcome news for European refineries. Oil product margins, especially jet fuel, have borne the brunt of low demand during the pandemic but should see a recovery as vaccines and fewer restrictions bring people out of their homes. More people should be travelling—most likely by road, initially, but also by plane as air corridors re-open—boosting consumption of transport fuels. Europeans also have money to spend, as lockdowns led to ballooning savings. The eurozone’s household savings rate (the share of a household’s income going to savings) reached record highs at the end of 2020, according to statistics body Eurostat. $1.70/bl – OMV’s Q1 Euro

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