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Oil’s tanker transformation
The global maritime oil transport sector enters 2026 facing a rare convergence of crude oversupply, record newbuild deliveries and the potential easing of several geopolitical disruptions that have shaped trade flows since 2022
Letter from the US: The curse of strong energy exports
Rebuilding industry, energy dominance and lower energy costs are key goals that remain at odds in 2026
OPEC’s discipline sets tone for 2026
OPEC+ remains on track as output falls, with only Gabon failing to hit its output targets in December, although Kazakhstan’s compliance was involuntary
Southeast Asia’s digital age requires the right energy mix
Indonesia and Malaysia are at the dawn of breathtaking digital capabilities. Their energy infrastructure must keep up with their ambitions
Outlook 2026: APAC is steadily growing and supporting its biofuels industry
The region’s access to versatile feedstock, combined with policy support, is setting it up to meet growing demand both at home and abroad
Outlook 2026: Time for a new international energy order
With the arrival of a multipolar world and 4b energy-poor people, the existing energy order is no longer fit for purpose
Outlook 2026: Crude on crude – How shale oil flipped the script on the global barrel
Heavy, sour crude and shale oil will battle for market relevance, but it may not be the sweetest barrels that taste victory
Outlook 2026: LNG markets and the overhang
A third wave of LNG supply is coming, and with it a likely oversupply of the fuel by 2028
Outlook 2026: The US energy paradox – Efficiency at home, influence abroad
The US’ domestic energy market may be stagnating, but its role in the global energy system looks set to bloom
Outlook 2026: The next oil shock – From peak demand mirage to structural tightness
Oil prices look set to come under pressure next year as oversupply hits, but longer-term the risk is underinvestment as demand continues to grow past 2030
Marine One flies US President George W. Bush over an oil refinery devastated by Hurricane Ike in 2008
Downstream Markets
Philip K. Verleger
6 August 2025
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A third distillate disruption

Diesel market disruptions have propelled crude prices above $100/bl twice in this century, and now oil teeters on the brink of another crude quality crisis

The combination of a glut of low-distillate-yield crudes, efforts by oil-exporting nations to boost prices, refinery shutdowns, and ill-conceived government policies threatens to push prices for diesel and low-sulphur distillates to record or near-record levels. The trade war instigated by the US will exacerbate market tightness by diverting key oil supplies from sophisticated refineries in the US, while Asian refineries purchase distillate-poor US crude to appease President Donald Trump’s trade hawks. To meet rising demand for these products, refiners will bid up low-sulphur, distillate-rich crudes such as Nigeria’s Bonny Light. The record or near-record production of US crude oils with low

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16 January 2026
The country’s global energy importance and domestic political fate are interlocked, highlighting its outsized oil and gas powers, and the heightened fallout risk
Oil’s tanker transformation
16 January 2026
The global maritime oil transport sector enters 2026 facing a rare convergence of crude oversupply, record newbuild deliveries and the potential easing of several geopolitical disruptions that have shaped trade flows since 2022
Letter from the US: The curse of strong energy exports
Opinion
15 January 2026
Rebuilding industry, energy dominance and lower energy costs are key goals that remain at odds in 2026
Venezuela mismanaged its oil, and US shale benefitted
14 January 2026
Chavez’s socialist reforms boosted state control but pushed knowledge and capital out of the sector, opening the way for the US shale revolution

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