Canada to play key role in oil supply growth

Oil sands will be complemented by conventional and shale output growth and supply opportunities improved by the Trans Mountain Pipeline, but the tariff threat remains

Canada has been a secure and reliable supplier of oil not only for the US but also for other parts of the world. As the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, it plays a key role in the global market. The country’s oil output averaged well above 5.7m b/d in 2024, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Despite President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs against Canada, oil producers remain optimistic about output this year, with conservative estimates showing an increase of around 300,000b/d. Oilfield industry association Enserva estimated at the end of last year that upstream spending in the Canadian oil and gas industry could reach $40b in 2025, which would be an increas