India to help Asia spearhead global refining

Shifting demand patterns leaves most populous nation primed to become downstream leader as China and the West retreat

India will help Asia lead growth in the global oil refining sector on the back of persistent fuel demand momentum, although expansion will be patchy among markets in the region, while China and developed economies will accelerate closures in response to slowing oil consumption as the energy transition advances. Global crude distillation unit (CDU) capacity is projected to grow by 1.55m b/d in 2025 based on 20 individual projects tracked by industry consultancies and research firms. This is roughly 30% lower than last year’s growth, which was bolstered by the startup of mega-refineries such as Nigeria’s 650,000b/d Dangote project, the 400,000b/d Yulong complex in China and Mexico’s 340,000b/d