Russia’s fuel crisis: Difficult but not catastrophic

International and opposition media claim that two-fifths of the country’s refining capacity is offline, but the true situation is not so dire

Russia is in the middle of a fuel crisis, caused mainly by a surge in the frequency and impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on its refineries. While some regions are struggling with shortages and wholesale prices have climbed, the situation is not as dire as some international and Russian opposition media claim. In particular, the widely circulated assertion that nearly two-fifths of Russia’s refining capacity is offline deserves scrutiny. Range, frequency, intensity Ukraine began intensifying drone attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure in early 2024, as Petroleum Economist previously reported. The strikes initially aimed to disrupt supplies to the military and war-related indus