Oil’s tanker transformation

The global maritime oil transport sector enters 2026 facing a rare convergence of crude oversupply, record newbuild deliveries and the potential easing of several geopolitical disruptions that have shaped trade flows since 2022

After three years of inflated tonne‑miles driven by the Russia-Ukraine war, sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, and the Red Sea crisis, the market is preparing for a year defined by abundant crude, a surge in fleet capacity, and a gradual reorganisation of trade routes. These shifts could reduce risk premiums, streamline logistics and accelerate the transition towards a more compliant fleet as older, sanctions‑exposed vessels exit the market. The main theme for 2026 is an imbalance between global oil production and consumption. Most forecasters expect a surplus of anything up to 3m b/d after a wave of supply hit the market throughout last year—from OPEC+’s reversal of its production cuts to bum