Crude prices have fallen 15% in three months
Lower oil demand growth and higher production rates have pushed the oil price down
Brent crude prices have fallen nearly 15% over the past three months, from around $113 per barrel (b) in late June to $96.65/b on 23 September. Weak oil demand, especially from China, and new supply from the US have both helped to drive prices lower. So, how much farther can oil prices fall? Bernstein Research, a price bull, has put the floor at around $90/b. Bernstein looked at seven factors, which would either boost demand or cut into supply, that it reckons will act to keep prices above $90/b. "Adding together their effects, we estimate the oil market would tighten by a full 1.5 million barrels per day (b/d), if oil price fell to $90/bbl Brent, which in turn would add $10 to $25/b to the
Also in this section
2 April 2026
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
2 April 2026
The government is taking important steps to revive domestic production, lift investment and benefit from the geopolitical crisis even if more needs to be done in the longer term
1 April 2026
Golden Pass’s startup offers QatarEnergy a timely boost but may also force a difficult choice between honouring disrupted contracts and capitalising on soaring spot LNG prices
1 April 2026
It is not a case of if or when, but the length and magnitude of economic damage from elevated oil prices
