Crude prices have fallen 15% in three months
Lower oil demand growth and higher production rates have pushed the oil price down
Brent crude prices have fallen nearly 15% over the past three months, from around $113 per barrel (b) in late June to $96.65/b on 23 September. Weak oil demand, especially from China, and new supply from the US have both helped to drive prices lower. So, how much farther can oil prices fall? Bernstein Research, a price bull, has put the floor at around $90/b. Bernstein looked at seven factors, which would either boost demand or cut into supply, that it reckons will act to keep prices above $90/b. "Adding together their effects, we estimate the oil market would tighten by a full 1.5 million barrels per day (b/d), if oil price fell to $90/bbl Brent, which in turn would add $10 to $25/b to the
Also in this section
23 April 2026
The addition of an oil pipeline to the Power of Siberia 2 gas project could ensure deliveries of Russian oil to China, materially shorten logistics lines between West Siberia and final customers, and—amid disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—offer a land-based export route that reduces exposure to maritime chokepoints
23 April 2026
There is a clear push to bolster exports to Asia amid uncertainty around its North American neighbour, but there are limits to the benefits from the energy crisis
23 April 2026
Shell made the play-opening discovery in Namibia’s Orange basin back in 2022, but its next well could decide whether the project can actually be commercialised
22 April 2026
The failure of OMV Petrom’s keenly watched exploration campaign at Bulgaria’s Han Asparuh block highlights the Black Sea’s uneven track record, despite major successes like Neptun Deep and Sakarya
