Geopolitics on the back burner despite Middle Eastern troubles

Rosier-than-expected fundamentals are easing oil prices – for now

With forecast output growth of 5 million barrels a day (b/d), Iraq was to be a cornerstone of global oil supply security over the next two decades, accounting for 45% of the world’s extra crude by 2035. Yet about a third of the country is now in the hands of Islamic State (IS), the brutal Sunni Jihadists who want to create a caliphate stretching across northern and western Iraq and eastern Syria.  IS is not yet a threat to the Shia-dominated south of Iraq, home to the mega-oilfields that account for the bulk of Iraq’s output. But political chaos in Baghdad and the risk of more sectarian strife, coupled with Iraq’s corruption and chronic bureaucratic problems, mean no one should pin their hop