Crude market goes lower for longer

Supply is up and prices are low - the end of 2015 will not bring a revival of crude markets

If you thought the second half of 2015 would bring a revival in crude markets, think again. From weakness in China to resilience in US tight oil the news for sellers is bleak. Start with supply, where the glut – an excess of 3.3m barrels a day (b/d) in Q2, according to the International Energy Agency - drags on, justifying front-month Brent’s 11% drop, to $57/b, since the start of July. Despite this, the big producer-countries’ output numbers remain robust. Defying the bulls, Russian production of 10.7m b/d was just shy of a record high. In Canada, firms are deferring investment in oil sands, but by 2017 – thanks to projects now being built – output will be almost 0.5m b/d higher than in 201