More price drops predicted as the market is yet to recover
Oil prices could take some time to bounce back - and the rout is not over yet
The bottom is nearing, but the pain is really just beginning. The plunge in oil prices, which in mid-January were trading beneath $50 a barrel (/b), or about 60% lower than their summer 2014 peak, has shaken the industry and is already devastating upstream investment plans. Steep price drops are still plausible, especially in the first half of this year, because the market is oversupplied -- and Opec, true to its word, is not blinking. The group will not change its strategy, Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui, the United Arab Emirates’ oil minister, said in mid-January. Opec is determined to deal with the “oversupply coming from shale oil”.The depth of this commitment was plain, too, in Ali Naim
Also in this section
13 March 2026
Brussels is again weighing a cap on gas prices amid the Hormuz crisis, but the measure could backfire by deterring the LNG cargoes Europe urgently needs
12 March 2026
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
12 March 2026
LPG could rapidly expand access to clean cooking across Africa and prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths from indoor air pollution each year, but infrastructure shortages and regulatory barriers are slowing investment and market growth
11 March 2026
Missiles over Dubai and disruption in Hormuz are testing the emirate’s reputation—and shaking the energy hub at the centre of the Gulf economy
