A glimpse of recovery for distillates
Falling runs and Middle East maintenance will tighten European distillate supply in Q4
After a prolonged glut stocks will soon start to draw. Not crude oil-but European distillates, the market for which will tighten in Q4 as lower refinery runs curb output and outages from facilities in the Middle East reduce its exports. The fourth quarter usually sees a shortfall of distillates in Europe. But this one will be deeper. European refinery runs are expected to average around 12.3m barrels a day in Q4, down 200,000 b/d from Q3 levels. In Q1 2017 they are expected to fall further, down to 12m b/d, according to Energy Aspects. Both the 400,000-b/d Yasref refinery on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast and the 0.53m-b/d Ras Tanura facility on its Gulf coast are expected to undergo large-sca
Also in this section
4 March 2026
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
4 March 2026
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
3 March 2026
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
2 March 2026
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
