13 January 2016
Absence of consensus underlines Brent Q1 price forecasts
Oil-market analysts have forecast a $25 a barrel range in average Brent prices in the first three months of 2016. But all agree that the global crude benchmark will rise by at least $5/b by the end of the year
Of the banks and consultancies surveyed by Petroleum Economist Norwegian bank DNB Nor was the most bullish on Brent prices for the January-March period, forecasting an average of $55/b. Barclays was the most bearish, expecting Brent prices over the first quarter to average just $30/b. The average of the forecasts was $43.67/b. This compares with an average Brent price forecast from the analysts for the April-June period of $47.66/b. Petroleum Economist surveyed six forecasters: Energy Aspects, DNB Nor, Barclays, BNP Paribas, ABN Amro and Morgan Stanley. Front-month Brent prices averaged $54.97/b in the first quarter of 2015, just over half the average price of $107.84/bQ1 2014. Energy Aspec
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