Back to the new normal
Judging by history, and reflecting rampant supply, tepid demand and a passive Opec, $50 oil is about where the price belongs
It's time to stop muttering about the oil-price crash and time to stop talking about a recovery. The terms imply that oil prices should be higher. They shouldn't. A better term is the oil-price return or, to pluck from the economist's lexicon, the reversion to the mean. An oil price at $45-50 a barrel-its level since the beginning of September-is neither high nor low. It's pretty much normal. Between the Second World War and the end of 2014, the mean price of oil, adjusted for inflation, has been $41/b. Between 1974, the first full year to feel the impact of Opec power, and 2014, when Opec power vanished, the real price of oil has averaged $54/b. That historical range-$41-54/b-neatly coincid
Also in this section
6 February 2026
The long close relationship between key supplier Qatar and pivotal buyer Japan becomes even deeper following new landmark deal
6 February 2026
Partnerships across the LNG value chain have evolved over time, growing in both complexity and importance, according to panellists at LNG2026
6 February 2026
Nigeria's mega-refinery is still trying to solve many challenges, all while its owner talks up expansion
5 February 2026
While broadly supportive of EU efforts to tackle methane emissions, representatives of the gas industry warn it could deter supply contracting if timelines and compliance requirements are not made more pragmatic
