Back to the new normal
Judging by history, and reflecting rampant supply, tepid demand and a passive Opec, $50 oil is about where the price belongs
It's time to stop muttering about the oil-price crash and time to stop talking about a recovery. The terms imply that oil prices should be higher. They shouldn't. A better term is the oil-price return or, to pluck from the economist's lexicon, the reversion to the mean. An oil price at $45-50 a barrel-its level since the beginning of September-is neither high nor low. It's pretty much normal. Between the Second World War and the end of 2014, the mean price of oil, adjusted for inflation, has been $41/b. Between 1974, the first full year to feel the impact of Opec power, and 2014, when Opec power vanished, the real price of oil has averaged $54/b. That historical range-$41-54/b-neatly coincid
Also in this section
24 December 2025
As activity in the US Gulf has stagnated at a lower level, the government is taking steps to encourage fresh exploration and bolster field development work
23 December 2025
The new government has brought stability and security to the country, with the door now open to international investment
23 December 2025
A third wave of LNG supply is coming, and with it a likely oversupply of the fuel by 2028
22 December 2025
Weakening climate resolve in the developed world and rapidly growing demand in developing countries means peak oil is still a long way away
