Divided oil world
The global crude supply landscape has transformed over the past two years, bringing some blessings and many curses for producers
Opec's decision in November 2014 not to cut production—one it has maintained at every meeting since—sparked a global output free-for-all, sending oil prices down in the process. Almost two years on, ahead of another unofficial Opec meeting in Algeria, Brent wasn't even able to sustain a price at $50 a barrel, its inflation-adjusted level since the 1970s. Demand is hardly roaring ahead, but the real culprit remains too much supply. In August, global oil production was 96.9m barrels a day—just 300,000 b/d less than a year ago. That's hardly the kind of supply retreat anyone expected when prices started to crumble. The relentless nature of the supply glut continues to thwart forecasters. In Jan
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The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
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With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
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The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
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A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
