India - the new demand-side dynamo

The oil market has been fixated on China. In 2017, it will have to start watching India and its booming consumer economy

Over the past decade, global oil-demand growth was driven mainly by China. But Beijing's effort to tilt its economy away from export-oriented heavy industry has changed this. China's annual oil-demand rise has slowed to around 200,000 barrels a day, compared with 0.5m b/d in the 10 years before 2013. Now the market has a new contender: India. Its thirst for oil has not matched China's in the past, partly thanks to the strength of its services sector relative to manufacturing in GDP, and partly because political paralysis has deterred industrial investment. India's burgeoning budget deficit in recent years, aggravated by oil prices above $100 a barrel, also sapped the investment climate. Over