Structural uncertainty

The drivers of global oil consumption are changing. Demand will rise in 2017, but risks lurk beneath the surface

The price slump has flipped the drivers of oil-demand growth on their head. Two trends remain in place. First, efficiency gains are leading to less oil use per capita. Second, China and India remain the engines of demand growth. But the one-two punch of low oil prices and global macroeconomic instability means the story for 2017 is no longer just a continuation of the robust oil-demand trend from 2010-14 nor of the volatility of 2015-16. Instead, a slightly higher $50-60-a-barrel price band means that oil demand will struggle if prices rise too far too fast, if seasonal demand doesn't perform as normal, or if broader macroeconomic growth doesn't match expectations. We expect global oil consu