The elusive oil market balance
Slow demand growth, bloated stocks and managed money are impeding the price recovery
Was May the high point-or will Opec come to the rescue? Brent futures jumped above $50 a barrel that month as unscheduled supply outages in Nigeria, Ghana and Canada took around 1.5m barrels a day of supply out of the market. Sentiment seemed to have turned. The long-sought rebalancing was underway. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said at the time that it expected "a dramatic reduction" in global crude stocks, which would fall by around 200,000 b/d in the second half of the year. That was remarkable-in the first half of the year, they were on course to grow by 1.3m b/d. The optimism was short-lived. By the beginning of August, Brent was on the slide again, even threatening to drop bene
Also in this section
4 March 2026
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
4 March 2026
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed following US-Israel strikes and Iran’s retaliatory escalation, Fujairah has become the region’s critical pressure release valve—and is now under serious threat
3 March 2026
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in US–Israeli strikes marks the most serious escalation in the region in decades and a bigger potential threat to the oil market than the start of the Russia-Ukraine crisis
2 March 2026
A potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the escalating US-Iran conflict risks disrupting Qatari LNG exports that underpin global gas markets, exposing Asia and other markets to sharp price spikes, cargo shortages and renewed reliance on dirtier fuels
