Opec can only disappoint the market
Many cutters are now sceptical of the need to keep cutting and a watered-down deal will be followed by weaker compliance in 2018 anyway
Opec and its partners will announce an extension of their cuts on 30 November, but that's about as much that can be said. The deal is not done and lacks consensus on the duration of the extension. The main reason one will be agreed is fear—fear that the market's reaction to anything less will be punishing. Bears will find reasons to sell anyway. Expect the deal announced tomorrow to be a watered-down version of the current one. It might include provisions to allow countries to produce more oil at certain prices, or call for a reassessment in the spring; Saudi Arabia might succeed in its aim of bringing Libya and Nigeria back into the quota system, but Libya, at least, intends to resist this;
Also in this section
7 August 2025
Without US backing, the EU’s newest sanctions package against Russia—though not painless—is unlikely to have a significant impact on the country’s oil and gas revenues or its broader economy
6 August 2025
Diesel market disruptions have propelled crude prices above $100/bl twice in this century, and now oil teeters on the brink of another crude quality crisis
5 August 2025
After failed attempts to find a buyer for its stake in Russia’s largest oil producer, BP may be able to avoid the harsh treatment meted out to ExxonMobil and Shell when they exited—and could even restart operations if geopolitical conditions improve
1 August 2025
A number of companies have filed arbitration claims against Gazprom over non-deliveries of contracted gas or other matters—and won. The next step is to collect the award, but this is no easy task
