Opec can only disappoint the market
Many cutters are now sceptical of the need to keep cutting and a watered-down deal will be followed by weaker compliance in 2018 anyway
Opec and its partners will announce an extension of their cuts on 30 November, but that's about as much that can be said. The deal is not done and lacks consensus on the duration of the extension. The main reason one will be agreed is fear—fear that the market's reaction to anything less will be punishing. Bears will find reasons to sell anyway. Expect the deal announced tomorrow to be a watered-down version of the current one. It might include provisions to allow countries to produce more oil at certain prices, or call for a reassessment in the spring; Saudi Arabia might succeed in its aim of bringing Libya and Nigeria back into the quota system, but Libya, at least, intends to resist this;
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