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Through the oil looking glass
The extent of the US-Israel war with Iran means there will be no going back to the previous market equilibrium no matter how the conflict ends
Do not fear runaway Henry Hub prices
Rising LNG exports and AI-driven power demand have raised concerns that US gas prices could climb sharply, but analysts say abundant shale supply and continued productivity gains should keep Henry Hub within a range that preserves the competitiveness of US LNG
Will policymakers panic before the oil market?
Risks of shortages in oil products may cause world leaders to panic and make mistakes instead of letting the market do what it does best
India taking pole position on oil demand growth
The country’s rapidly expanding economy is boosting its consumption of oil as demand for the fuel slows elsewhere in the world
Letter from London: The oil market should panic tomorrow
Emergency oil stocks provide a last line of defence to oil market shocks, so the IEA’s unprecedented 400m bl release represents something of a double-edged sword
The diesel crisis
By shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has cut exports of distillate-rich Middle Eastern crude, jet fuel and diesel, and is holding the energy market hostage
OPEC+ boosted production before crisis
Petroleum Economist analysis sees increases in output from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Kazakhstan among others before region’s murky descent
Trump’s gasoline price pledge paradox
The US president has repeatedly promised to lower gasoline prices, but this ambition conflicts with his parallel aim to increase drilling and could be upended by his war against Iran
Letter from Asia: The nuanced India-Russia oil picture
The South Asian consumer’s next move could tighten the Middle East oil market overnight
A new oil flows playbook
The assumption that oil markets will re-route and work around sanctions is being tested, and it is the physical infrastructure that is acting as the constraint
Oil market will soon receive an elongated boost
Markets Trading
Paul Hickin,
Editor-in-chief
28 March 2023
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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Goldman’s Currie interview part 2: Supercycle set for capex surge that will elevate oil longer term

Head of commodity research says energy transition a key driver for the supercycle and Middle East the key engine for oil investment

The oil market will soon receive an elongated boost as the commodity supercycle looks to enter a new phase of capital spending, driven partly by the energy transition, says Goldman Sachs’ head of commodity research, Jeff Currie, in a wide-ranging interview with Petroleum Economist. You have talked up the fact that we are in a commodity supercycle, while some commentators suggest we are not quite there yet, perhaps because of recessions or other factors. How do you define a supercycle and how is the energy transition a key part of that theory? Jeff Currie, head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs Currie:  A commodity supercycle is not

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The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
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Disruptions to Qatari LNG exports have highlighted the risks of concentrated supply, potentially strengthening the long-term position of US exporters despite limited near-term flexibility
Through the oil looking glass
20 March 2026
The extent of the US-Israel war with Iran means there will be no going back to the previous market equilibrium no matter how the conflict ends

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