Outlook 2024: Oil pricing in a post-peak-demand world
The carbon intensity of oil may bring a change to pricing long-term
The latest views from the IEA indicate that coal, oil and natural gas demand will peak by 2030, just a handful of years away. Regardless of the date, it is useful to understand how the oil market may change as demand begins to decline. Should demand fall near the natural rate of production decline, as the IEA points out is necessary for the world to reach net zero by 2050, we will see a disruption in the long-term price-setting mechanism for oil. This shift could be as seminal as the switch from posted prices to market prices in the 1970s or the financialisation of oil. The long-term price will fall sharply, placing intense pressure on oil-producing firms seeking to compete to retain a marke
Also in this section
24 December 2025
As activity in the US Gulf has stagnated at a lower level, the government is taking steps to encourage fresh exploration and bolster field development work
23 December 2025
The new government has brought stability and security to the country, with the door now open to international investment
23 December 2025
A third wave of LNG supply is coming, and with it a likely oversupply of the fuel by 2028
22 December 2025
Weakening climate resolve in the developed world and rapidly growing demand in developing countries means peak oil is still a long way away
