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Letter from the US: This crisis Is different
Oil traders warning of $200/bl oil are wrong, and the market should be wary of proclamations that the impact of the oil shortage has only begun to be felt and a that a ‘harsh adjustment’ is coming—even for industrialised nations
Middle East oil’s multi-step recovery plan
Restoring supply from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq involves complexities far beyond simply adjusting operational controls
In pipelines we trust
The addition of an oil pipeline to the Power of Siberia 2 gas project could ensure deliveries of Russian oil to China, materially shorten logistics lines between West Siberia and final customers, and—amid disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—offer a land-based export route that reduces exposure to maritime chokepoints
Canada’s oil and gas looks East
There is a clear push to bolster exports to Asia amid uncertainty around its North American neighbour, but there are limits to the benefits from the energy crisis
OPEC+ caught between a crisis and a surplus
After overcoming a COVID-induced demand collapse with several years of successful market management, geopolitical events have conspired to provide the pact’s biggest test to date
The illusion of supply: Rethinking energy security when oil cannot move
Demand for oil is falling because supply cannot meet it, not because it is no longer required
OPEC+’s 11m b/d March production collapse
Petroleum Economist analysis highlights sharp shift from crude oversupply to market deficit, with Iraq and Kuwait badly affected and key producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE also seeing output sharply lower
China’s secure energy transition
Alongside a rapid continued build-out of renewables, China’s latest five-year plan stresses the value of domestic hydrocarbon production for energy security and calls for increased Russian gas imports
The demand destruction timebomb
It is not a case of if or when, but the length and magnitude of economic damage from elevated oil prices
Lessons from the crisis
The US-Iran conflict demonstrates the need for diversification in several senses of the word. It also exposes the limits of Washington applying pressure on major oil and gas producers it considers geopolitical adversaries
Markets China
Philip K. Verleger
25 July 2025
Follow @PetroleumEcon
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China creates two-tier oil dynamic

There is a bifurcation in the global oil market as China’s stockpiling contrasts with reduced inventories elsewhere

The oil-exporting nations are boosting production. OPEC forecasters see a need for increased output to meet projected consumption and refill inventories. Other analysts seem to agree. The problem, however, is that the global market has split into two parts. Companies in one country, China, are aggressively building inventories on government orders. Firms elsewhere are striving to shed stocks out of a fear that oil-exporting countries cannot or will not maintain market stability. Oil prices will stay at current levels if the Chinese buy enough, and fall otherwise. This raises a huge issue. Chinese buying has held crude prices above $60/bl. Market-watchers should be more concerned than they ar

Also in this section
Letter from the US: This crisis Is different
Opinion
28 April 2026
Oil traders warning of $200/bl oil are wrong, and the market should be wary of proclamations that the impact of the oil shortage has only begun to be felt and a that a ‘harsh adjustment’ is coming—even for industrialised nations
Middle East oil’s multi-step recovery plan
28 April 2026
Restoring supply from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq involves complexities far beyond simply adjusting operational controls
Decoding datacentre energy demand
28 April 2026
Datacentres will guzzle power at a ferocious rate, but the impact on wider energy markets will be far more complex than previously thought
Iraq’s pipeline dilemma
28 April 2026
The key energy player faces balancing regional routes, political complexities, and creating a clear strategic vision for energy security

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