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IEA and OPEC energy assumptions on fragile ground
Geopolitical uncertainty casts a pall over expectations around demand, supply, investment and spare capacity
The oil risk premium fable
Israel’s attack on Iran caught oil firms with low inventories due to their efforts to protect themselves from falling prices, creating a perfect storm
Saudi Arabia and Russia pull OPEC+ in different directions
The two oil heavyweights’ diverging fiscal considerations are straining unity within the group
OPEC+ still showing restraint
Petroleum Economist analysis shows OPEC bringing back some barrels in May, but fewer than expected, while OPEC+ continues to see output fall
Markets
Ehsan ul-Haq
Paul Hickin,
Editor-in-chief
11 February 2025
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Core OPEC, OPEC+ tighten oil output in January

Improving compliance among the group and wider group is offset by production increases in outliers Libya, Venezuela and Iran

OPEC-9 output declined in January for the second consecutive month, according to Petroleum Economist estimates, despite falling Russian exports due to tightening sanctions. Compliance was seen at 99%. China's retaliatory tariffs against the US are expected to reduce flows from North America’s largest exporter. Saudi Aramco raised official pricing prices for March to Asian destinations significantly, with Arab Light showing an increase of $2.40/bl to $3.90/bl above the Oman/Dubai average. Saudi production increased to 9.01m b/d compared with 8.99m b/d in December. Not only China, but also India and other Asian importers, have scrambled to secure alternative supplies due to Russian oil’s absen

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