Oil market imbalances divide major energy agencies
OPEC and IEA split on oil demand outlook and even diverge on supply risks, with huge implications for market sentiment
The IEA appears to be factoring in negative sentiment around consumption into its annual outlook, while OPEC seems to be more about extrapolating from the here and now. Given the global economic uncertainty, the oil market appears to be erring towards the IEA’s view, but with a focus on trade tensions with China having somewhat shifted to trade deals in the Middle East, the chasm between the two forecasting agencies may still narrow. The latest monthly oil market reports from the IEA and OPEC paint divergent pictures of 2025 and 2026. While both acknowledge the growing share of non-OECD demand, they differ in overall supply growth forecast, future supply dynamics and the pace of the energy t
Also in this section
28 April 2026
Oil traders warning of $200/bl oil are wrong, and the market should be wary of proclamations that the impact of the oil shortage has only begun to be felt and a that a ‘harsh adjustment’ is coming—even for industrialised nations
28 April 2026
Restoring supply from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq involves complexities far beyond simply adjusting operational controls
28 April 2026
Datacentres will guzzle power at a ferocious rate, but the impact on wider energy markets will be far more complex than previously thought
28 April 2026
The key energy player faces balancing regional routes, political complexities, and creating a clear strategic vision for energy security
