Oil’s fragile AI trillions

Prices risk hitting $10/bl should the tech bubble burst amid worrying economic fallout

The global oil market will confront a surplus of 3m b/d for the rest of 2025 and 2.4m b/d in 2026, according to the IEA. By the end of next year, world stocks will be 1.1b bl higher if these projections are correct. This assumes, of course, that someone will buy the oil and that there is adequate storage capacity to hold it. More significantly, it assumes the current AI ‘bubble’ does not pop. Thus, today, one person, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, stands between the current oil price and oil at $10/bl. Altman founded his firm just ten years ago. Although the company is privately owned, various estimates put its value at around $500b. In contrast, ExxonMobil, which has existed for more than a century