Supercycle goes into reverse

Oil and gas prices could come crashing down, resurrecting ghosts of trade wars past

Commodity traders such as Jeff Currie, the former Goldman Sachs executive, have often talked of commodity supercycles, trumpeting the rise in commodity prices. Just four years ago, a new multi-year boom was prophesied that would amplify profits of companies in the commodity business and the income of commodity-exporting nations such as Saudi Arabia. But in April 2025, a reverse cycle of potentially similar magnitude is taking hold. Before it ends, crude oil could fall below $20/bl and perhaps even $10/bl, while US gas prices might drop below $1/mcf. The downward cycle could be perpetual, especially if an intensifying trade war between the US and other nations further reduces global oil