Supercycle goes into reverse
Oil and gas prices could come crashing down, resurrecting ghosts of trade wars past
Commodity traders such as Jeff Currie, the former Goldman Sachs executive, have often talked of commodity supercycles, trumpeting the rise in commodity prices. Just four years ago, a new multi-year boom was prophesied that would amplify profits of companies in the commodity business and the income of commodity-exporting nations such as Saudi Arabia. But in April 2025, a reverse cycle of potentially similar magnitude is taking hold. Before it ends, crude oil could fall below $20/bl and perhaps even $10/bl, while US gas prices might drop below $1/mcf. The downward cycle could be perpetual, especially if an intensifying trade war between the US and other nations further reduces global oil
Also in this section
15 May 2025
Financial problems, lack of exploration success and political dogma cause uncertainty across much of the region
14 May 2025
The invisible hand of the market has seen increasing transparency but much more needs to be done to build a better understanding
13 May 2025
A fall in Venezuelan output drives overall production lower, as Saudi Arabia starts to slowly bring more crude to the market
12 May 2025
With the gas industry’s staunchest advocates and opponents taking brutal blows, the sector looks like treading a path of insipid indifference
