Letter from Asia: The nuanced India-Russia oil picture

The South Asian consumer’s next move could tighten the Middle East oil market overnight

For the past two years, India has played a quiet but pivotal role in global crude markets. By absorbing large volumes of discounted Russian barrels, Indian refiners have acted as a release valve for sanctioned supply, helping stabilise flows that might otherwise have disrupted benchmarks more dramatically. But that balancing function is no longer guaranteed. Trade pressure, shifting geopolitical alignments and evolving sanctions enforcement are introducing uncertainty around how sustainable India’s Russian crude intake remains. The market tends to treat this as a binary scenario: either India continues buying Russian barrels, or it stops. The reality is more nuanced and far more consequentia