Oil in 2026: Five factors to watch
Petroleum Economist takes a look at the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the market for this year
The Middle East and the Americas will determine the course of oil supply this year, while China’s strategic purchases, the fate of sanctioned barrels and the incessant geopolitical swings will provide uncertainty on both sides of the supply-demand ledger. Petroleum Economist sees Brent oil prices averaging around $63/bl in 2026, remaining under pressure early on before seeing some upside later in the year. 1. American oil muscle The IEA believes global oil supply will rise by 2.5m b/d in 2026 after growth of 3m b/d in 2025. The reasoning is that non-OPEC+ producers add 1.3m b/d in 2026, bolstered by rising output from the Americas quintet of the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. Whi
Also in this section
13 April 2026
Petroleum Economist analysis highlights sharp shift from crude oversupply to market deficit, with Iraq and Kuwait badly affected and key producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE also seeing output sharply lower
13 April 2026
Turkmenistan is moving ahead with a modest expansion of the giant Galkynysh field to sustain gas deliveries abroad, but persistent delays to other key pipeline projects and geopolitical risks continue to constrain its export ambitions
13 April 2026
Expensive electricity has forced out swathes of energy-intensive industry and now threatens the country’s ability to attract future investment in datacentres and the digital economy
13 April 2026
For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure
