Oil in 2026: Five factors to watch
Petroleum Economist takes a look at the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the market for this year
The Middle East and the Americas will determine the course of oil supply this year, while China’s strategic purchases, the fate of sanctioned barrels and the incessant geopolitical swings will provide uncertainty on both sides of the supply-demand ledger. Petroleum Economist sees Brent oil prices averaging around $63/bl in 2026, remaining under pressure early on before seeing some upside later in the year. 1. American oil muscle The IEA believes global oil supply will rise by 2.5m b/d in 2026 after growth of 3m b/d in 2025. The reasoning is that non-OPEC+ producers add 1.3m b/d in 2026, bolstered by rising output from the Americas quintet of the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. Whi
Also in this section
21 January 2026
Petroleum Economist takes a look at the critical developments that look set to govern the course of the market for this year
20 January 2026
The ripple effects of US refiners switching to Venezuela grades will be felt from Canada to China and everywhere in between
20 January 2026
As the global energy system undergoes its most profound transformation in a century, the need for credible leadership, practical solutions and inclusive dialogue has never been greater. In 2026, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia will stand at the centre of this conversation as host of the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh.
20 January 2026
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is the host of the 25th WPC Energy Congress on 26-30 April 2026. The Ministry of Energy spoke with Petroleum Economist about the key messages and opportunities for the global energy community.
