OPEC+’s 11m b/d March production collapse
Petroleum Economist analysis highlights sharp shift from crude oversupply to market deficit, with Iraq and Kuwait badly affected and key producers Saudi Arabia and the UAE also seeing output sharply lower
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has turned a potential supply risk into a real decline in regional oil shipments. According to Petroleum Economist, most producing countries in the region reported a sharp drop in output in March compared with February. The downturn is largely due to the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil flows. With tanker traffic halted for most of March because of the ongoing war between Iran, the US, and Israel, Gulf producers cut production as export routes remained blocked and storage capacities filled up. What was forecast as an oversupplied market at the start of 2026 has quickly become a supply deficit. In Feb
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For GCC producers, the ceasefire may prove more destabilising than the war itself: exports remain constrained, and control over Hormuz has shifted in ways that could endure
