Asia past its peak
China’s output will fall this year, the biggest loser as Asia’s oil production drifts lower
THE INTENSE focus on the price war between Saudi Arabia and higher-cost producers has obscured an important trend elsewhere in the market. It appears that China’s oil production probably peaked at one point in 2015, and will enter structural decline some time over the course of the months ahead. This is significant as the country is not just a major crude importer, it is also the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, trailing behind only the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Canada. To give that some context, the country pumps quite substantially more oil than Iran and Iraq. The country’s domestic oil production was up 2.2% to 4.3m barrels a day – or just under 5% of global supply – last year compa
Also in this section
20 March 2026
Attacks on key oil and LNG assets across the Gulf mean a prolonged supply disruption, with damage to Qatar’s export capacity undermining confidence in the global gas system
20 March 2026
The US may be systemically stripping Russia of key geopolitical allies, but Moscow can reap rewards from the Hormuz crisis, both in the short and long term
20 March 2026
Disruptions to Qatari LNG exports have highlighted the risks of concentrated supply, potentially strengthening the long-term position of US exporters despite limited near-term flexibility
20 March 2026
The extent of the US-Israel war with Iran means there will be no going back to the previous market equilibrium no matter how the conflict ends
