Flatlining in the FSU

The region’s three big producers will have a mixed 2016. Russian output will hold steady, while Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan see small declines

RUSSIA is pumping hard − and will do its level best to keep output at recent highs. Despite the price slump, some analysts even think production will rise this year. We think it will start to fall. CIB, a unit of Russia’s largest lender Sberbank, predicts output will increase by 130,000 barrels a day, to 10.86m b/d, while RenCap, owned by billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, expects a rise of 50,000 to 100,000 b/d. Analysts at both UralSib Financial Corporation and Aton Capital appear to be far more cautious, estimating output will be flat or 50,000 b/d higher. The outlier is consultancy Macro Advisory, which suggests output will dip by 200,000 to 300,000 b/d. Russia’s oil companies set another po