Production forecasts: falling, not freezing

Welcome to our in-depth report on production forecasts

IF OIL prices remain around $30 a barrel, output from the world’s major producers will fall by 150,000 barrels a day by mid-2016 and by 0.583m b/d by the year’s end, according to Petroleum Economist’s special report this month. The US will suffer the steepest losses, followed by Russia, Asia, Latin America and the North Sea. Rising Middle Eastern production – chiefly from Iran and a bit from Iraq – and West Africa will temper the losses. These declines should offer glimmers of hope for a price revival. In tandem with a forecast rise in consumption of 1.2m b/d this year, supply and demand should come back into balance in the second half of 2016. Stocks would start to draw down. But strong pri